Recently SPY has been really strong.
On 10/5/15 SPY up 1.79% to 198.48 from 194.99 previous day Vol.122 Million, I thought it was very much overbought so opened a PUT 200 121915 Exp. @7.55 total $1510
(10/2/15 SPY up 1.49% to 194.99 from 192.16 previous day Vol. 206 MM)
Ever since then, SPY all the way to to 203 level.
Last week, 10/14/15 SPY up 1.5% to 202.29 from 199.30, 10/15/15 continue to up to 203.27 then it hover around 203 for three days till yesterday 10/20/15 it drops to 201.87, which is about 0.6%. Vol. 99 MM
And I though it's the sign to retreat so add another PUT 204 011616 Exp. @7.6 total $760
Know what happen today? SPY up almost 2% and I lost 61% in the first put and 31% on the newly added one.
What's wrong with my judgement?